Analyst Predicts No Altcoin Season While Bitcoin Dominance Holds
As long as Bitcoin maintains its position above the Bull Market Support Band, analysts believe an altcoin season is unlikely. Recently, Bitcoin’s price saw a slight increase, trading around $104,800, after a brief dip to $103,600 was quickly reversed by bullish activity, pushing it closer to the $105,000 threshold. This fluctuation in price follows the U.S. Federal Reserve’s decision to keep interest rates steady. Despite these changes, analyst Luca on X has pointed out that Bitcoin’s dominance remains robust.
Understanding the Bull Market Support Band
The Bull Market Support Band is a significant feature in Bitcoin’s dominance chart, comprising two important moving averages: a 20-week simple moving average and a 21-week exponential moving average. The range between these averages creates a vital support area, with Bitcoin consistently staying above it. This trend indicates that Bitcoin is outperforming altcoins, suggesting that an altcoin season, characterized by altcoins surpassing Bitcoin in performance, is not anticipated in the near future.
Support Levels Indicated by the BMSB
The Bitcoin Dominance chart reveals multiple instances where the Bull Market Support Band (BMSB) has acted as a crucial support level, halting declines in dominance. For instance, from June 2024 to July, Bitcoin’s dominance fell from approximately 56.2% to 54.44%, yet the BMSB remained intact, highlighting Bitcoin’s ongoing strength. A similar scenario occurred from late December 2024 to January 2025, where dominance decreased from 59% to 56.61%, but the support band effectively prevented further declines. Most recently, Bitcoin’s dominance was supported at 61.93% on May 14, following a drop from 65.4% on May 7, and has since rebounded to 64.9%.
Short-lived Drops in Bitcoin Dominance
Interestingly, the Bitcoin Dominance chart also indicates a short period where its dominance fell below the Bull Market Support Band. This dip occurred in early December when dominance fell to around 54.6%. However, this decrease was temporary, as dominance quickly bounced back to 59% by December 20. While this brief drop suggested a momentary weakening of Bitcoin’s market position, it did not signify a broader trend towards altcoin dominance. Luca maintains that as long as Bitcoin’s dominance stays above the Bull Market Support Band, an altcoin season is not on the horizon.
Analyst Perspectives on Bitcoin and Altcoin Future
Other analysts have also offered their insights regarding Bitcoin’s dominance, presenting various forecasts for its future. The analyst known as Bitcoinsensus warns that dominance could soon “fall off a cliff,” although a minor dip might precede a potential altcoin season. They note that Bitcoin’s dominance has been on an upward trajectory for over four years and might continue to rise, possibly hitting 70% before a shift occurs to favor altcoins. Conversely, Dariusz Kowalczyk has observed signs of a potential double top pattern in Bitcoin’s dominance. If Bitcoin fails to break through key resistance levels, it could lead to a rotation of capital towards altcoins. However, should Bitcoin surpass these resistance points, it may be on a path toward reaching a new all-time high.
Disclaimer
This article is intended for informational purposes only and should not be interpreted as financial advice. The opinions expressed herein reflect the personal views of the author and do not necessarily represent those of The Crypto Basic. Readers are encouraged to conduct their own research before making investment decisions, as The Crypto Basic does not accept responsibility for any financial losses.
